Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
levelONEloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phantom#88 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePhantom pick
50%59%
levelONE · 0 mapsedge Phantom +9%Phantom · 13 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%47%
levelONE · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Phantom · 11 maps
AncientlevelONE ban
50%57%
levelONE · 0 mapsedge Phantom +7%Phantom · 10 maps
MiragePhantom ban
50%43%
levelONE · 0 mapsedge levelONE +7%Phantom · 10 maps
OverpasslevelONE ban
50%67%
levelONE · 0 mapsedge Phantom +17%Phantom · 8 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
50%57%
levelONE · 0 mapsedge Phantom +7%Phantom · 3 maps
CachelevelONE pick
50%40%
levelONE · 0 mapsedge levelONE +10%Phantom · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanlevelONE remove Overpass
2. BanPhantom remove Anubis
3. PicklevelONE take Cache
4. PickPhantom take Nuke
5. BanPhantom remove Mirage
6. BanlevelONE remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
levelONE 56%Phantom 44%
The model gave 56% on levelONE — the map was taken by Phantom.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
levelONE 40%Phantom 60%
The model gave 60% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 81%
Series resultPhantom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2