Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
BIG#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fluxo#56 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBIG ban
50%62%
BIG · 4 mapsedge Fluxo +12%Fluxo · 17 maps
Dust2BIG ban
50%50%
BIG · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Fluxo · 12 maps
MirageFluxo pick
30%73%
BIG · 6 mapsedge Fluxo +43%Fluxo · 7 maps
InfernoBIG pick
56%50%
BIG · 5 mapsedge BIG +6%Fluxo · 6 maps
AncientFluxo ban
64%40%
BIG · 7 mapsedge BIG +24%Fluxo · 1 map
AnubisFluxo ban
60%50%
BIG · 1 mapedge BIG +10%Fluxo · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%56%
BIG · 1 mapnearly even +4%Fluxo · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBIG remove Nuke
2. BanFluxo remove Ancient
3. PickBIG take Inferno
4. PickFluxo take Mirage
5. BanFluxo remove Anubis
6. BanBIG remove Dust2
DeciderCache (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
BIG 12%Fluxo 88%
The model gave 88% on Fluxo — the map was taken by BIG.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
BIG 58%Fluxo 42%
The model gave 58% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 67%
Series resultBIG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2