CCT 2026 South America Series 7 · BO3
result vs predictionANA NATAwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheA NATA ban
50%27%
A NATA · 0 mapsedge A NATA +23%Sementes do Mal · 7 maps
Dust2A NATA pick
40%22%
A NATA · 1 mapedge A NATA +18%Sementes do Mal · 5 maps
AncientSementes do Mal pick
40%50%
A NATA · 1 mapedge Sementes do Mal +10%Sementes do Mal · 4 maps
MirageSementes do Mal ban
50%22%
A NATA · 0 mapsedge A NATA +28%Sementes do Mal · 5 maps
DefaultA NATA ban
50%50%
A NATA · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Sementes do Mal · 4 maps
InfernoSementes do Mal ban
50%43%
A NATA · 0 mapsedge A NATA +7%Sementes do Mal · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanA NATA remove Cache
2. BanSementes do Mal remove Mirage
3. PickA NATA take Dust2
4. PickSementes do Mal take Ancient
5. BanSementes do Mal remove Inferno
6. BanA NATA remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
A NATA 43%Sementes do Mal 57%
The model gave 57% on Sementes do Mal — the map was taken by A NATA.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
A NATA 67%Sementes do Mal 33%
The model gave 67% on A NATA — the map was taken by Sementes do Mal.
Mirageprediction correct16:14
A NATA 78%Sementes do Mal 22%
The model gave 78% on A NATA — the map was taken by A NATA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSementes do Mal · 51%
Series resultA NATA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3