ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
63%40%
INOX Division · 20 mapsedge INOX Division +23%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
NukeINOX Division pick
72%56%
INOX Division · 14 mapsedge INOX Division +16%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
Dust2possible decider
67%53%
INOX Division · 14 mapsedge INOX Division +14%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
AncientINOX Division ban
56%53%
INOX Division · 12 mapsnearly even +3%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS pick
46%60%
INOX Division · 9 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +14%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
CacheBASEMENT BOYS ban
56%67%
INOX Division · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +11%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%57%
INOX Division · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. PickINOX Division take Nuke
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Anubis
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Cache
6. BanINOX Division remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (67% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct12:16
INOX Division 50%BASEMENT BOYS 50%
The model gave 50% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
INOX Division 70%BASEMENT BOYS 30%
The model gave 70% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
INOX Division 64%BASEMENT BOYS 36%
The model gave 64% on INOX Division — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 56%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3