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GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-RUBY#99 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
52%67%
ex-RUBY · 21 mapedge Black Phoenix +15%Black Phoenix · 17 maps
Mirageex-RUBY ban
62%44%
ex-RUBY · 17 mapsedge ex-RUBY +18%Black Phoenix · 12 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
65%43%
ex-RUBY · 19 mapsedge ex-RUBY +22%Black Phoenix · 10 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
47%50%
ex-RUBY · 15 mapsnearly even -3%Black Phoenix · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%64%
ex-RUBY · 4 mapsnearly even -1%Black Phoenix · 7 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%58%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +8%Black Phoenix · 8 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
60%20%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +40%Black Phoenix · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUBY remove Mirage
DeciderCache (63% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
ex-RUBY 47%Black Phoenix 53%
The model gave 53% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
ex-RUBY 70%Black Phoenix 30%
The model gave 70% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
ex-RUBY 71%Black Phoenix 29%
The model gave 71% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 55%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3