DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Time Waves#263 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Arcade#198 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Time Waves ban
50%43%
Time Waves · 0 mapsedge Time Waves +7%Arcade · 3 maps
NukeArcade pick
40%50%
Time Waves · 1 mapedge Arcade +10%Arcade · 2 maps
CacheTime Waves pick
50%50%
Time Waves · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Arcade · 2 maps
MirageArcade ban
50%50%
Time Waves · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Arcade · 2 maps
InfernoArcade ban
40%50%
Time Waves · 1 mapedge Arcade +10%Arcade · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTime Waves remove Dust2
2. BanArcade remove Inferno
3. PickTime Waves take Cache
4. PickArcade take Nuke
5. BanArcade remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
Time Waves 43%Arcade 57%
The model gave 57% on Arcade — the map was taken by Arcade.
Nukeprediction missed19:16
Time Waves 37%Arcade 63%
The model gave 63% on Arcade — the map was taken by Time Waves.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Time Waves 50%Arcade 50%
The model gave 50% on Time Waves — the map was taken by Arcade.
Model check result
Model favoriteArcade · 71%
Series resultArcade 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3