ESEA Intermediate Season 58 Oceania · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mindfreak#129 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Inferno5dads ban
50%44%
5dads · 0 mapsedge 5dads +6%Mindfreak · 14 maps
MirageMindfreak pick
50%67%
5dads · 0 mapsedge Mindfreak +17%Mindfreak · 8 maps
Nuke5dads ban
50%42%
5dads · 0 mapsedge 5dads +8%Mindfreak · 8 maps
Anubis5dads pick
50%33%
5dads · 0 mapsedge 5dads +17%Mindfreak · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%60%
5dads · 1 mapnearly even +0%Mindfreak · 1 map
Dust2Mindfreak ban
60%40%
5dads · 1 mapedge 5dads +20%Mindfreak · 1 map
CacheMindfreak ban
40%50%
5dads · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5dads remove Inferno
2. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
3. Pick5dads take Anubis
4. PickMindfreak take Mirage
5. BanMindfreak remove Cache
6. Ban5dads remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
5dads 72%Mindfreak 28%
The model gave 72% on 5dads — the map was taken by 5dads.
Ancientprediction missed13:2
5dads 47%Mindfreak 53%
The model gave 53% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by 5dads.
Model check result
Model favoriteMindfreak · 66%
Series result5dads 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2