FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#127 in the world · win 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chinggis Warriors#77 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nuke5star pick
55%45%
5star · 7 mapsedge 5star +10%Chinggis Warriors · 7 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
23%29%
5star · 9 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +6%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
45%50%
5star · 7 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +5%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
56%40%
5star · 5 mapsedge 5star +16%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
Mirage5star ban
63%50%
5star · 4 mapsedge 5star +13%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
Dust25star ban
50%44%
5star · 0 mapsedge 5star +6%Chinggis Warriors · 5 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
60%40%
5star · 1 mapedge 5star +20%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Dust2
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. Pick5star take Nuke
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
6. Ban5star remove Mirage
DeciderCache (56% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
5star 56%Chinggis Warriors 44%
The model gave 56% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
5star 72%Chinggis Warriors 28%
The model gave 72% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 72%
Series result5star 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2