MESA Pro Series Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#35 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
57%58%
5star · 17 mapsnearly even -1%Chinggis Warriors · 20 maps
Inferno5star pick
57%65%
5star · 17 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +8%Chinggis Warriors · 13 maps
Ancient5star ban
25%56%
5star · 16 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +31%Chinggis Warriors · 12 maps
CacheChinggis Warriors ban
57%50%
5star · 10 mapsedge 5star +7%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
Dust25star ban
50%50%
5star · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 12 maps
Miragepossible decider
64%56%
5star · 7 mapsedge 5star +8%Chinggis Warriors · 5 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
71%29%
5star · 3 mapsedge 5star +42%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Dust2
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. Pick5star take Inferno
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Cache
6. Ban5star remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (64% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:16
5star 19%Chinggis Warriors 81%
The model gave 81% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
5star 45%Chinggis Warriors 55%
The model gave 55% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by 5star.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
5star 49%Chinggis Warriors 51%
The model gave 51% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 86%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3