Elisa Esports BreakOut Series 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
ROUNDS#231 in the world · loss 5:13series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 5:13
BC.Game#60 in the world · win 13:5The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageROUNDS ban
33%33%
ROUNDS · 5 mapsnearly even +0%BC.Game · 2 maps
InfernoBC.Game ban
50%50%
ROUNDS · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BC.Game · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%50%
ROUNDS · 5 mapsedge ROUNDS +6%BC.Game · 0 maps
Dust2ROUNDS ban
33%29%
ROUNDS · 2 mapsnearly even +4%BC.Game · 3 maps
NukeBC.Game ban
33%50%
ROUNDS · 5 mapsedge BC.Game +17%BC.Game · 0 maps
DefaultBC.Game ban
71%50%
ROUNDS · 3 mapsedge ROUNDS +21%BC.Game · 0 maps
AnubisROUNDS ban
50%40%
ROUNDS · 0 mapsedge ROUNDS +10%BC.Game · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanROUNDS remove Dust2
2. BanBC.Game remove Inferno
3. BanROUNDS remove Anubis
4. BanBC.Game remove Nuke
5. BanROUNDS remove Mirage
6. BanBC.Game remove Default
DeciderAncient (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
ROUNDS 50%BC.Game 50%
The model gave 50% on ROUNDS — the map was taken by BC.Game.
Model check result
Model favoriteROUNDS · 50%
Series resultBC.Game 5:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1