NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
59%55%
ex-RUBY · 23 mapsnearly even +4%Lavked · 36 maps
Dust2possible decider
59%38%
ex-RUBY · 30 mapsedge ex-RUBY +21%Lavked · 22 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
72%50%
ex-RUBY · 25 mapsedge ex-RUBY +22%Lavked · 18 maps
Ancientex-RUBY ban
46%65%
ex-RUBY · 20 mapsedge Lavked +19%Lavked · 13 maps
OverpassLavked ban
59%43%
ex-RUBY · 13 mapsedge ex-RUBY +16%Lavked · 3 maps
AnubisLavked ban
60%53%
ex-RUBY · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +7%Lavked · 13 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
50%18%
ex-RUBY · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +32%Lavked · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
2. BanLavked remove Overpass
3. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Anubis
6. Banex-RUBY remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (59% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
ex-RUBY 51%Lavked 49%
The model gave 51% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
ex-RUBY 75%Lavked 25%
The model gave 75% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 68%
Series resultex-RUBY 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2