NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Phantom#88 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
38%55%
Phantom · 12 mapsedge Lavked +17%Lavked · 36 maps
Dust2Phantom pick
56%38%
Phantom · 14 mapsedge Phantom +18%Lavked · 22 maps
Nukepossible decider
56%55%
Phantom · 14 mapsnearly even +1%Lavked · 18 maps
AncientPhantom ban
53%69%
Phantom · 13 mapsedge Lavked +16%Lavked · 12 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
67%53%
Phantom · 2 mapsedge Phantom +14%Lavked · 13 maps
OverpassLavked ban
67%50%
Phantom · 8 mapsedge Phantom +17%Lavked · 4 maps
InfernoLavked ban
60%18%
Phantom · 1 mapedge Phantom +42%Lavked · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPhantom remove Anubis
2. BanLavked remove Inferno
3. PickPhantom take Dust2
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Overpass
6. BanPhantom remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (56% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
Phantom 31%Lavked 69%
The model gave 69% on Lavked — the map was taken by Phantom.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Phantom 54%Lavked 46%
The model gave 54% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 66%
Series resultPhantom 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2