FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
9z#13 in the world · win 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5star#127 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
54%46%
9z · 9 mapsedge 9z +8%5star · 9 maps
Nuke5star pick
45%62%
9z · 7 mapsedge 5star +17%5star · 9 maps
Ancient5star ban
43%27%
9z · 3 mapsedge 9z +16%5star · 11 maps
Dust25star ban
50%50%
9z · 12 mapsnearly even +0%5star · 0 maps
Mirage9z ban
55%67%
9z · 7 mapsedge 5star +12%5star · 5 maps
Cache9z ban
50%60%
9z · 2 mapsedge 5star +10%5star · 6 maps
Overpass9z pick
67%50%
9z · 5 mapsedge 9z +17%5star · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9z remove Mirage
2. Ban5star remove Dust2
3. Pick9z take Overpass
4. Pick5star take Nuke
5. Ban5star remove Ancient
6. Ban9z remove Cache
DeciderInferno (54% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:3
9z 37%5star 63%
The model gave 63% on 5star — the map was taken by 9z.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
9z 37%5star 63%
The model gave 63% on 5star — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favorite9z · 89%
Series result9z 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2