ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
9z#17 in the world · win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM#13 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nuke9z pick
46%50%
9z · 9 mapsnearly even -4%BETBOOM · 4 maps
MirageBETBOOM pick
50%50%
9z · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BETBOOM · 4 maps
CacheBETBOOM ban
50%50%
9z · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BETBOOM · 4 maps
Ancient9z ban
43%43%
9z · 3 mapsnearly even +0%BETBOOM · 3 maps
Anubis9z ban
50%50%
9z · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BETBOOM · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
9z · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BETBOOM · 0 maps
InfernoBETBOOM ban
44%50%
9z · 5 mapsedge BETBOOM +6%BETBOOM · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9z remove Anubis
2. BanBETBOOM remove Inferno
3. Pick9z take Nuke
4. PickBETBOOM take Mirage
5. BanBETBOOM remove Cache
6. Ban9z remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
9z 53%BETBOOM 47%
The model gave 53% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
9z 47%BETBOOM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM · 55%
Series result9z 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2