IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
9z#17 in the world · win 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The MongolZ#16 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%56%
9z · 10 mapsedge The MongolZ +6%The MongolZ · 5 maps
Mirage9z ban
36%36%
9z · 7 mapsnearly even +0%The MongolZ · 7 maps
InfernoThe MongolZ pick
55%75%
9z · 7 mapsedge The MongolZ +20%The MongolZ · 4 maps
AncientThe MongolZ ban
56%33%
9z · 5 mapsedge 9z +23%The MongolZ · 5 maps
Nuke9z pick
55%57%
9z · 7 mapsnearly even -2%The MongolZ · 3 maps
OverpassThe MongolZ ban
73%50%
9z · 7 mapsedge 9z +23%The MongolZ · 2 maps
Anubis9z ban
40%50%
9z · 1 mapedge The MongolZ +10%The MongolZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban9z remove Anubis
2. BanThe MongolZ remove Overpass
3. Pick9z take Nuke
4. PickThe MongolZ take Inferno
5. BanThe MongolZ remove Ancient
6. Ban9z remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
9z 26%The MongolZ 74%
The model gave 74% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by 9z.
Overpassprediction correct13:8
9z 75%The MongolZ 25%
The model gave 75% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 68%
Series result9z 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2