Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
6666#80 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
61%60%
Acend · 19 mapsnearly even +1%6666 · 1 map
AncientAcend ban
44%43%
Acend · 12 mapsnearly even +1%6666 · 3 maps
Dust26666 ban
50%50%
Acend · 14 mapsnearly even +0%6666 · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
54%29%
Acend · 9 mapsedge Acend +25%6666 · 3 maps
OverpassAcend ban
36%50%
Acend · 10 mapsedge 6666 +14%6666 · 0 maps
Default6666 pick
71%50%
Acend · 3 mapsedge Acend +21%6666 · 0 maps
Anubis6666 ban
60%40%
Acend · 1 mapedge Acend +20%6666 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Overpass
2. Ban6666 remove Anubis
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. Pick6666 take Default
5. Ban6666 remove Dust2
6. BanAcend remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (54% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
Acend 48%6666 52%
The model gave 52% on 6666 — the map was taken by Acend.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
Acend 77%6666 23%
The model gave 77% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 83%
Series resultAcend 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2