Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
67%58%
Acend · 8 mapsedge Acend +9%Just Players · 8 maps
AncientJust Players pick
44%55%
Acend · 5 mapsedge Just Players +11%Just Players · 7 maps
Dust2Just Players ban
50%40%
Acend · 4 mapsedge Acend +10%Just Players · 6 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%45%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Acend +5%Just Players · 7 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%63%
Acend · 2 mapsedge Just Players +13%Just Players · 4 maps
AnubisAcend ban
50%67%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Just Players +17%Just Players · 2 maps
DefaultJust Players ban
60%40%
Acend · 1 mapedge Acend +20%Just Players · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanJust Players remove Dust2
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickJust Players take Ancient
5. BanJust Players remove Default
6. BanAcend remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Acend 57%Just Players 43%
The model gave 57% on Acend — the map was taken by Just Players.
Overpassprediction correct11:13
Acend 40%Just Players 60%
The model gave 60% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 66%
Series resultJust Players 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2