IEM Beijing 2026 Open Qualifier · BO1
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · win 19:17series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 19:17
Phantom#88 in the world · loss 17:19The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
53%56%
Acend · 13 mapsnearly even -3%Phantom · 12 maps
MiragePhantom ban
47%36%
Acend · 15 mapsedge Acend +11%Phantom · 10 maps
AncientAcend ban
54%58%
Acend · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Phantom · 15 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
69%75%
Acend · 12 mapsedge Phantom +6%Phantom · 4 maps
OverpassAcend ban
33%70%
Acend · 8 mapsedge Phantom +37%Phantom · 6 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%59%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Phantom +9%Phantom · 13 maps
AnubisPhantom ban
57%44%
Acend · 3 mapsedge Acend +13%Phantom · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanPhantom remove Anubis
3. BanAcend remove Overpass
4. BanPhantom remove Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Ancient
6. BanPhantom remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (53% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed19:17
Acend 46%Phantom 54%
The model gave 54% on Phantom — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom · 55%
Series resultAcend 19:17
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1