European Pro League Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALGO#146 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Imperial Academy#224 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisImperial Academy ban
40%50%
ALGO · 1 mapedge Imperial Academy +10%Imperial Academy · 0 maps
MirageALGO ban
40%50%
ALGO · 1 mapedge Imperial Academy +10%Imperial Academy · 0 maps
NukeALGO pick
40%50%
ALGO · 1 mapedge Imperial Academy +10%Imperial Academy · 0 maps
OverpassImperial Academy pick
40%50%
ALGO · 1 mapedge Imperial Academy +10%Imperial Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALGO remove Mirage
2. BanImperial Academy remove Anubis
3. PickALGO take Nuke
4. PickImperial Academy take Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
ALGO 50%Imperial Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on ALGO — the map was taken by Imperial Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteALGO · 60%
Series resultImperial Academy 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1