BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBORRACHEIROS pick
58%56%
ALKA · 8 mapsnearly even +2%BORRACHEIROS · 5 maps
Dust2ALKA pick
64%71%
ALKA · 10 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +7%BORRACHEIROS · 3 maps
MirageALKA ban
55%43%
ALKA · 7 mapsedge ALKA +12%BORRACHEIROS · 3 maps
NukeBORRACHEIROS ban
54%40%
ALKA · 9 mapsedge ALKA +14%BORRACHEIROS · 1 map
InfernoBORRACHEIROS ban
56%33%
ALKA · 5 mapsedge ALKA +23%BORRACHEIROS · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%71%
ALKA · 1 mapedge BORRACHEIROS +31%BORRACHEIROS · 3 maps
AnubisALKA ban
40%50%
ALKA · 1 mapedge BORRACHEIROS +10%BORRACHEIROS · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Anubis
2. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Nuke
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickBORRACHEIROS take Ancient
5. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Inferno
6. BanALKA remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (40% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
ALKA 69%BORRACHEIROS 31%
The model gave 69% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Nukeprediction correct16:13
ALKA 66%BORRACHEIROS 34%
The model gave 66% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 63%
Series resultALKA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2