FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#50 in the world · win 2:0series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
magic#18 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientmagic pick
71%63%
Alliance · 10 mapsedge Alliance +8%magic · 15 maps
InfernoAlliance pick
75%67%
Alliance · 12 mapsedge Alliance +8%magic · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
44%36%
Alliance · 5 mapsedge Alliance +8%magic · 7 maps
Anubismagic ban
43%50%
Alliance · 3 mapsedge magic +7%magic · 4 maps
CacheAlliance ban
50%73%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge magic +23%magic · 7 maps
Nukemagic ban
64%50%
Alliance · 7 mapsedge Alliance +14%magic · 0 maps
MirageAlliance ban
50%50%
Alliance · 0 mapsnearly even +0%magic · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Mirage
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickAlliance take Inferno
4. Pickmagic take Ancient
5. Banmagic remove Anubis
6. BanAlliance remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (44% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:13
Alliance 56%magic 44%
The model gave 56% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Alliance 63%magic 37%
The model gave 63% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 72%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2