DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#127 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Abyssal#129 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
63%60%
Alter Ego · 15 mapsnearly even +3%Abyssal · 11 maps
InfernoAbyssal ban
60%47%
Alter Ego · 6 mapsedge Alter Ego +13%Abyssal · 15 maps
AncientAbyssal ban
71%60%
Alter Ego · 10 mapsedge Alter Ego +11%Abyssal · 6 maps
MirageAbyssal pick
63%73%
Alter Ego · 4 mapsedge Abyssal +10%Abyssal · 11 maps
CacheAlter Ego ban
60%63%
Alter Ego · 6 mapsnearly even -3%Abyssal · 4 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%42%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Alter Ego +8%Abyssal · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
43%40%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Abyssal · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
2. BanAbyssal remove Ancient
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickAbyssal take Mirage
5. BanAbyssal remove Inferno
6. BanAlter Ego remove Cache
DeciderDefault (43% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Alter Ego 60%Abyssal 40%
The model gave 60% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Alter Ego 56%Abyssal 44%
The model gave 56% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 50%
Series resultAlter Ego 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2