BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2AM ban
29%33%
AM · 3 mapsnearly even -4%megoshort · 2 maps
Miragemegoshort pick
50%43%
AM · 2 mapsedge AM +7%megoshort · 3 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
44%50%
AM · 5 mapsedge megoshort +6%megoshort · 0 maps
AncientAM ban
43%50%
AM · 3 mapsedge megoshort +7%megoshort · 0 maps
InfernoAM pick
71%50%
AM · 3 mapsedge AM +21%megoshort · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%40%
AM · 1 mapedge AM +20%megoshort · 1 map
Overpassmegoshort ban
67%50%
AM · 2 mapsedge AM +17%megoshort · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Ancient
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. PickAM take Inferno
4. Pickmegoshort take Mirage
5. Banmegoshort remove Overpass
6. BanAM remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
AM 54%megoshort 46%
The model gave 54% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
AM 47%megoshort 53%
The model gave 53% on megoshort — the map was taken by megoshort.
Overpassprediction correct13:9
AM 67%megoshort 33%
The model gave 67% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Model check result
Model favoriteAM · 74%
Series resultAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3