1xBet FRAG Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
60%44%
ARCRED · 6 mapsedge ARCRED +16%Rune Eaters · 21 map
MirageRune Eaters pick
29%61%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge Rune Eaters +32%Rune Eaters · 14 maps
AncientARCRED ban
33%53%
ARCRED · 2 mapsedge Rune Eaters +20%Rune Eaters · 13 maps
InfernoRune Eaters ban
60%36%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge ARCRED +24%Rune Eaters · 7 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
75%71%
ARCRED · 4 mapsnearly even +4%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
CacheRune Eaters ban
40%50%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge Rune Eaters +10%Rune Eaters · 4 maps
DefaultARCRED ban
50%71%
ARCRED · 2 mapsedge Rune Eaters +21%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Ancient
2. BanRune Eaters remove Inferno
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. PickRune Eaters take Mirage
5. BanRune Eaters remove Cache
6. BanARCRED remove Default
DeciderDust2 (60% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
ARCRED 63%Rune Eaters 37%
The model gave 63% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
ARCRED 22%Rune Eaters 78%
The model gave 78% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 53%
Series resultARCRED 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2