ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Last Bullet#210 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientArise pick
50%40%
Arise · 0 mapsedge Arise +10%Last Bullet · 1 map
DefaultArise ban
40%50%
Arise · 1 mapedge Last Bullet +10%Last Bullet · 0 maps
Dust2Last Bullet ban
50%40%
Arise · 0 mapsedge Arise +10%Last Bullet · 1 map
MirageLast Bullet pick
50%60%
Arise · 0 mapsedge Last Bullet +10%Last Bullet · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArise remove Default
2. BanLast Bullet remove Dust2
3. PickArise take Ancient
4. PickLast Bullet take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Arise 63%Last Bullet 37%
The model gave 63% on Arise — the map was taken by Last Bullet.
Mirageprediction correct22:25
Arise 37%Last Bullet 63%
The model gave 63% on Last Bullet — the map was taken by Last Bullet.
Model check result
Model favoriteLast Bullet · 54%
Series resultLast Bullet 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2