PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#71 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga#46 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemiga ban
71%29%
ASTRAL · 10 mapsedge ASTRAL +42%Nemiga · 10 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
50%60%
ASTRAL · 8 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Nemiga · 6 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
50%70%
ASTRAL · 6 mapsedge Nemiga +20%Nemiga · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
57%46%
ASTRAL · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +11%Nemiga · 9 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
50%56%
ASTRAL · 4 mapsedge Nemiga +6%Nemiga · 5 maps
CacheNemiga ban
50%50%
ASTRAL · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Nemiga · 2 maps
DefaultASTRAL pick
67%40%
ASTRAL · 2 mapsedge ASTRAL +27%Nemiga · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
2. BanNemiga remove Ancient
3. PickASTRAL take Default
4. PickNemiga take Anubis
5. BanNemiga remove Cache
6. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (57% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
ASTRAL 88%Nemiga 12%
The model gave 88% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
ASTRAL 37%Nemiga 63%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
ASTRAL 61%Nemiga 39%
The model gave 61% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 54%
Series resultNemiga 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3