Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliance#22 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
68%67%
Astralis · 15 mapsnearly even +1%Alliance · 8 maps
InfernoAlliance pick
45%57%
Astralis · 7 mapsedge Alliance +12%Alliance · 10 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
22%33%
Astralis · 5 mapsedge Alliance +11%Alliance · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
36%43%
Astralis · 7 mapsedge Alliance +7%Alliance · 3 maps
CacheAlliance ban
67%40%
Astralis · 8 mapsedge Astralis +27%Alliance · 1 map
MirageAlliance ban
43%50%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Alliance +7%Alliance · 0 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
33%50%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge Alliance +17%Alliance · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. BanAlliance remove Cache
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. PickAlliance take Inferno
5. BanAlliance remove Mirage
6. BanAstralis remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (36% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct14:16
Astralis 36%Alliance 64%
The model gave 64% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
Astralis 77%Alliance 23%
The model gave 77% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Astralis 43%Alliance 57%
The model gave 57% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 65%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3