Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BIG#27 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
70%50%
Astralis · 16 mapsedge Astralis +20%BIG · 10 maps
Cachepossible decider
71%57%
Astralis · 10 mapsedge Astralis +14%BIG · 10 maps
InfernoBIG pick
42%62%
Astralis · 8 mapsedge BIG +20%BIG · 9 maps
MirageBIG ban
43%38%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Astralis +5%BIG · 9 maps
NukeBIG ban
31%57%
Astralis · 9 mapsedge BIG +26%BIG · 3 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
22%57%
Astralis · 5 mapsedge BIG +35%BIG · 3 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
33%60%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge BIG +27%BIG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. BanBIG remove Mirage
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. PickBIG take Inferno
5. BanBIG remove Nuke
6. BanAstralis remove Dust2
DeciderCache (71% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
Astralis 68%BIG 32%
The model gave 68% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Astralis 28%BIG 72%
The model gave 72% on BIG — the map was taken by BIG.
Mirageprediction correct13:1
Astralis 55%BIG 45%
The model gave 55% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 69%
Series resultAstralis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3