XP Game Fest 2026 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:0series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JiJieHao#47 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientJiJieHao pick
63%67%
Atreides · 4 mapsnearly even -4%JiJieHao · 8 maps
MirageAtreides pick
78%63%
Atreides · 5 mapsedge Atreides +15%JiJieHao · 4 maps
InfernoAtreides ban
57%78%
Atreides · 3 mapsedge JiJieHao +21%JiJieHao · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
33%50%
Atreides · 2 mapsedge JiJieHao +17%JiJieHao · 4 maps
OverpassJiJieHao ban
50%50%
Atreides · 6 mapsnearly even +0%JiJieHao · 0 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
50%50%
Atreides · 0 mapsnearly even +0%JiJieHao · 4 maps
DefaultJiJieHao ban
60%50%
Atreides · 1 mapedge Atreides +10%JiJieHao · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAtreides remove Anubis
2. BanJiJieHao remove Overpass
3. PickAtreides take Mirage
4. PickJiJieHao take Ancient
5. BanJiJieHao remove Default
6. BanAtreides remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Atreides 25%JiJieHao 75%
The model gave 75% on JiJieHao — the map was taken by Atreides.
Mirageprediction correct19:17
Atreides 70%JiJieHao 30%
The model gave 70% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteJiJieHao · 71%
Series resultAtreides 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2