ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BERG#210 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBERG pick
40%44%
Azuolas · 1 mapnearly even -4%BERG · 5 maps
MirageAzuolas pick
40%44%
Azuolas · 1 mapnearly even -4%BERG · 5 maps
NukeBERG ban
50%40%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Azuolas +10%BERG · 6 maps
AnubisAzuolas ban
50%38%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Azuolas +12%BERG · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
Azuolas · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BERG · 2 maps
DefaultAzuolas ban
50%60%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge BERG +10%BERG · 1 map
OverpassBERG ban
50%40%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Azuolas +10%BERG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAzuolas remove Anubis
2. BanBERG remove Overpass
3. PickAzuolas take Mirage
4. PickBERG take Ancient
5. BanBERG remove Nuke
6. BanAzuolas remove Default
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Azuolas 42%BERG 58%
The model gave 58% on BERG — the map was taken by Azuolas.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
Azuolas 48%BERG 52%
The model gave 52% on BERG — the map was taken by BERG.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Azuolas 60%BERG 40%
The model gave 60% on Azuolas — the map was taken by Azuolas.
Model check result
Model favoriteBERG · 56%
Series resultAzuolas 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3