NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bushido Wildcats#73 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
40%72%
Azuolas · 1 mapedge Bushido Wildcats +32%Bushido Wildcats · 32 maps
MirageAzuolas pick
38%54%
Azuolas · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +16%Bushido Wildcats · 22 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%63%
Azuolas · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Bushido Wildcats · 20 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
50%38%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Azuolas +12%Bushido Wildcats · 9 maps
AnubisAzuolas ban
50%58%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +8%Bushido Wildcats · 8 maps
CacheAzuolas ban
50%58%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +8%Bushido Wildcats · 8 maps
AncientBushido Wildcats ban
57%40%
Azuolas · 3 mapsedge Azuolas +17%Bushido Wildcats · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAzuolas remove Anubis
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Ancient
3. PickAzuolas take Mirage
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
6. BanAzuolas remove Cache
DeciderNuke (67% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:4
Azuolas 39%Bushido Wildcats 61%
The model gave 61% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Azuolas.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Azuolas 58%Bushido Wildcats 42%
The model gave 58% on Azuolas — the map was taken by Azuolas.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 77%
Series resultAzuolas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2