ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Permitta#102 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAzuolas pick
50%33%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Azuolas +17%Permitta · 8 maps
CacheAzuolas ban
50%70%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Permitta +20%Permitta · 6 maps
NukePermitta pick
50%50%
Azuolas · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Permitta · 6 maps
MiragePermitta ban
50%56%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Permitta +6%Permitta · 5 maps
AnubisAzuolas ban
50%63%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Permitta +13%Permitta · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%33%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Azuolas +17%Permitta · 2 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
50%33%
Azuolas · 0 mapsedge Azuolas +17%Permitta · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAzuolas remove Cache
2. BanPermitta remove Dust2
3. PickAzuolas take Ancient
4. PickPermitta take Nuke
5. BanPermitta remove Mirage
6. BanAzuolas remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Azuolas 64%Permitta 36%
The model gave 64% on Azuolas — the map was taken by Permitta.
Mirageprediction correct12:16
Azuolas 47%Permitta 53%
The model gave 53% on Permitta — the map was taken by Permitta.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 68%
Series resultPermitta 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2