CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
BAKS#112 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
47%55%
BAKS · 11 mapsedge Black Phoenix +8%Black Phoenix · 38 maps
CacheBAKS pick
74%59%
BAKS · 15 mapsedge BAKS +15%Black Phoenix · 13 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
50%46%
BAKS · 4 mapsnearly even +4%Black Phoenix · 22 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%55%
BAKS · 8 mapsedge Black Phoenix +5%Black Phoenix · 18 maps
InfernoBAKS ban
36%61%
BAKS · 7 mapsedge Black Phoenix +25%Black Phoenix · 14 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%25%
BAKS · 0 mapsedge BAKS +25%Black Phoenix · 16 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
70%40%
BAKS · 6 mapsedge BAKS +30%Black Phoenix · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBAKS remove Anubis
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
3. PickBAKS take Cache
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. BanBAKS remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
BAKS 69%Black Phoenix 31%
The model gave 69% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Dust2prediction correct1:13
BAKS 39%Black Phoenix 61%
The model gave 61% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
BAKS 54%Black Phoenix 46%
The model gave 54% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 58%
Series resultBAKS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3