Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Linx Legacy#257 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLinx Legacy pick
50%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Linx Legacy · 0 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS pick
40%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge Linx Legacy +10%Linx Legacy · 0 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge Linx Legacy +10%Linx Legacy · 0 maps
MirageLinx Legacy ban
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%Linx Legacy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. BanLinx Legacy remove Mirage
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Anubis
4. PickLinx Legacy take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
BASEMENT BOYS 47%Linx Legacy 53%
The model gave 53% on Linx Legacy — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
BASEMENT BOYS 53%Linx Legacy 47%
The model gave 53% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 71%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2