Hotspawn Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 16 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%overTIME · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 14 mapsnearly even +0%overTIME · 0 maps
MirageoverTIME ban
61%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 14 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +11%overTIME · 0 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS ban
53%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsnearly even +3%overTIME · 0 maps
CacheoverTIME ban
58%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +8%overTIME · 0 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsnearly even +0%overTIME · 0 maps
DefaultoverTIME pick
50%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%overTIME · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
2. BanoverTIME remove Mirage
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
4. PickoverTIME take Default
5. BanoverTIME remove Cache
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:11
BASEMENT BOYS 47%overTIME 53%
The model gave 53% on overTIME — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
BASEMENT BOYS 64%overTIME 36%
The model gave 64% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by overTIME.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
BASEMENT BOYS 50%overTIME 50%
The model gave 50% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 77%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3