Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
BBL#62 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard#39 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
BBL · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Wildcard · 6 maps
NukeBBL pick
38%29%
BBL · 4 mapsedge BBL +9%Wildcard · 3 maps
MirageWildcard ban
50%38%
BBL · 2 mapsedge BBL +12%Wildcard · 4 maps
CacheBBL ban
50%50%
BBL · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Wildcard · 2 maps
Dust2BBL ban
50%50%
BBL · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Wildcard · 4 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%50%
BBL · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Wildcard · 0 maps
DefaultWildcard pick
60%50%
BBL · 1 mapedge BBL +10%Wildcard · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBBL remove Dust2
2. BanWildcard remove Ancient
3. PickBBL take Nuke
4. PickWildcard take Default
5. BanWildcard remove Mirage
6. BanBBL remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
BBL 63%Wildcard 37%
The model gave 63% on BBL — the map was taken by BBL.
Infernoprediction missed16:12
BBL 47%Wildcard 53%
The model gave 53% on Wildcard — the map was taken by BBL.
Model check result
Model favoriteBBL · 57%
Series resultBBL 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2