HyperX Retake Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
BC.Game#42 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Metizport#65 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMetizport pick
53%54%
BC.Game · 11 mapsnearly even -1%Metizport · 24 maps
MirageMetizport ban
69%56%
BC.Game · 9 mapsedge BC.Game +13%Metizport · 14 maps
CacheBC.Game pick
69%57%
BC.Game · 12 mapsedge BC.Game +12%Metizport · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%58%
BC.Game · 5 mapsnearly even -2%Metizport · 15 maps
AncientBC.Game ban
40%67%
BC.Game · 6 mapsedge Metizport +27%Metizport · 11 maps
AnubisBC.Game ban
40%62%
BC.Game · 1 mapedge Metizport +22%Metizport · 9 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
75%50%
BC.Game · 8 mapsedge BC.Game +25%Metizport · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBC.Game remove Ancient
2. BanMetizport remove Dust2
3. PickBC.Game take Cache
4. PickMetizport take Nuke
5. BanMetizport remove Mirage
6. BanBC.Game remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (56% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
BC.Game 47%Metizport 53%
The model gave 53% on Metizport — the map was taken by BC.Game.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
BC.Game 67%Metizport 33%
The model gave 67% on BC.Game — the map was taken by Metizport.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
BC.Game 25%Metizport 75%
The model gave 75% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Model check result
Model favoriteBC.Game · 60%
Series resultMetizport 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3