NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HEROIC Academy#100 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageBebop pick
60%50%
Bebop · 1 mapedge Bebop +10%HEROIC Academy · 2 maps
DefaultHEROIC Academy pick
50%50%
Bebop · 2 mapsnearly even +0%HEROIC Academy · 0 maps
Dust2HEROIC Academy ban
60%40%
Bebop · 1 mapedge Bebop +20%HEROIC Academy · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
40%40%
Bebop · 1 mapnearly even +0%HEROIC Academy · 1 map
AncientBebop ban
50%40%
Bebop · 0 mapsedge Bebop +10%HEROIC Academy · 1 map
InfernoHEROIC Academy ban
40%50%
Bebop · 1 mapedge HEROIC Academy +10%HEROIC Academy · 0 maps
OverpassBebop ban
50%60%
Bebop · 0 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +10%HEROIC Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBebop remove Overpass
2. BanHEROIC Academy remove Dust2
3. PickBebop take Mirage
4. PickHEROIC Academy take Default
5. BanHEROIC Academy remove Inferno
6. BanBebop remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Bebop 63%HEROIC Academy 37%
The model gave 63% on Bebop — the map was taken by Bebop.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
Bebop 57%HEROIC Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on Bebop — the map was taken by HEROIC Academy.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Bebop 69%HEROIC Academy 31%
The model gave 69% on Bebop — the map was taken by Bebop.
Model check result
Model favoriteBebop · 59%
Series resultBebop 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3