ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
benched gods#162 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MAYBE#173 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientbenched gods ban
50%33%
benched gods · 12 mapsedge benched gods +17%MAYBE · 5 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
61%50%
benched gods · 14 mapsedge benched gods +11%MAYBE · 2 maps
AnubisMAYBE pick
40%43%
benched gods · 11 mapsnearly even -3%MAYBE · 3 maps
Miragebenched gods ban
33%50%
benched gods · 8 mapsedge MAYBE +17%MAYBE · 6 maps
Dust2MAYBE ban
42%22%
benched gods · 8 mapsedge benched gods +20%MAYBE · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
83%60%
benched gods · 8 mapsedge benched gods +23%MAYBE · 1 map
InfernoMAYBE ban
57%50%
benched gods · 3 mapsedge benched gods +7%MAYBE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
2. BanMAYBE remove Inferno
3. Pickbenched gods take Cache
4. PickMAYBE take Anubis
5. BanMAYBE remove Dust2
6. Banbenched gods remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (83% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
benched gods 31%MAYBE 69%
The model gave 69% on MAYBE — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
benched gods 64%MAYBE 36%
The model gave 64% on benched gods — the map was taken by MAYBE.
Model check result
Model favoritebenched gods · 53%
Series resultMAYBE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2