Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BESTIA#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CLANSBRloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BESTIA pick
65%60%
BESTIA · 16 mapsedge BESTIA +5%CLANSBR · 1 map
AncientBESTIA ban
45%40%
BESTIA · 7 mapsedge BESTIA +5%CLANSBR · 1 map
CacheBESTIA ban
36%60%
BESTIA · 7 mapsedge CLANSBR +24%CLANSBR · 1 map
InfernoCLANSBR pick
50%40%
BESTIA · 6 mapsedge BESTIA +10%CLANSBR · 1 map
MirageCLANSBR ban
50%40%
BESTIA · 6 mapsedge BESTIA +10%CLANSBR · 1 map
NukeCLANSBR ban
67%50%
BESTIA · 5 mapsedge BESTIA +17%CLANSBR · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBESTIA remove Cache
2. BanCLANSBR remove Nuke
3. PickBESTIA take Dust2
4. PickCLANSBR take Inferno
5. BanCLANSBR remove Mirage
6. BanBESTIA remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
BESTIA 53%CLANSBR 47%
The model gave 53% on BESTIA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
BESTIA 63%CLANSBR 37%
The model gave 63% on BESTIA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBESTIA · 79%
Series resultBESTIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2