NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
40%67%
BET-M · 6 mapsedge Honvéd +27%Honvéd · 20 maps
Miragepossible decider
55%48%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge BET-M +7%Honvéd · 19 maps
AncientBET-M ban
36%57%
BET-M · 7 mapsedge Honvéd +21%Honvéd · 10 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
42%56%
BET-M · 8 mapsedge Honvéd +14%Honvéd · 5 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
33%29%
BET-M · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Honvéd · 3 maps
AnubisBET-M ban
50%71%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +21%Honvéd · 3 maps
DefaultBET-M pick
50%57%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +7%Honvéd · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Anubis
2. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
3. PickBET-M take Default
4. PickHonvéd take Dust2
5. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
6. BanBET-M remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (55% / 48%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
BET-M 23%Honvéd 77%
The model gave 77% on Honvéd — the map was taken by BET-M.
Infernoprediction correct16:14
BET-M 58%Honvéd 42%
The model gave 58% on BET-M — the map was taken by BET-M.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 62%
Series resultBET-M 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2