NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
BET-M#65 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
50%58%
BET-M · 4 mapsedge SPARTA +8%SPARTA · 27 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
33%33%
BET-M · 8 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 17 maps
MirageBET-M pick
60%52%
BET-M · 6 mapsedge BET-M +8%SPARTA · 17 maps
NukeBET-M ban
42%50%
BET-M · 8 mapsedge SPARTA +8%SPARTA · 14 maps
InfernoSPARTA ban
33%43%
BET-M · 5 mapsedge SPARTA +10%SPARTA · 10 maps
OverpassBET-M ban
50%45%
BET-M · 0 mapsedge BET-M +5%SPARTA · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%50%
BET-M · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SPARTA · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBET-M remove Overpass
2. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
3. PickBET-M take Mirage
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
6. BanBET-M remove Nuke
DeciderCache (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
BET-M 39%SPARTA 61%
The model gave 61% on SPARTA — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
BET-M 61%SPARTA 39%
The model gave 61% on BET-M — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBET-M · 55%
Series resultSPARTA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2