NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Beyond Limits#206 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoBeyond Limits pick
57%25%
Beyond Limits · 3 mapsedge Beyond Limits +32%FarmVille · 4 maps
MirageBeyond Limits ban
33%63%
Beyond Limits · 2 mapsedge FarmVille +30%FarmVille · 4 maps
Dust2FarmVille pick
40%43%
Beyond Limits · 1 mapnearly even -3%FarmVille · 3 maps
CacheBeyond Limits ban
50%50%
Beyond Limits · 0 mapsnearly even +0%FarmVille · 2 maps
AnubisFarmVille ban
40%50%
Beyond Limits · 1 mapedge FarmVille +10%FarmVille · 0 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
60%50%
Beyond Limits · 1 mapedge Beyond Limits +10%FarmVille · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBeyond Limits remove Mirage
2. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
3. PickBeyond Limits take Inferno
4. PickFarmVille take Dust2
5. BanFarmVille remove Anubis
6. BanBeyond Limits remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Beyond Limits 44%FarmVille 56%
The model gave 56% on FarmVille — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Beyond Limits 82%FarmVille 18%
The model gave 82% on Beyond Limits — the map was taken by Beyond Limits.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
Beyond Limits 40%FarmVille 60%
The model gave 60% on FarmVille — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Model check result
Model favoriteBeyond Limits · 51%
Series resultFarmVille 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3