WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
WW#123 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
40%45%
beznegativa · 1 mapedge WW +5%WW · 7 maps
MirageWW pick
60%60%
beznegativa · 1 mapnearly even +0%WW · 6 maps
Nukebeznegativa ban
50%38%
beznegativa · 0 mapsedge beznegativa +12%WW · 4 maps
Cachebeznegativa pick
40%50%
beznegativa · 1 mapedge WW +10%WW · 2 maps
AnubisWW ban
50%50%
beznegativa · 0 mapsnearly even +0%WW · 2 maps
Infernobeznegativa ban
50%50%
beznegativa · 0 mapsnearly even +0%WW · 2 maps
AncientWW ban
60%50%
beznegativa · 1 mapedge beznegativa +10%WW · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banbeznegativa remove Nuke
2. BanWW remove Ancient
3. Pickbeznegativa take Cache
4. PickWW take Mirage
5. BanWW remove Anubis
6. Banbeznegativa remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (40% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed2:13
beznegativa 53%WW 47%
The model gave 53% on beznegativa — the map was taken by WW.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
beznegativa 42%WW 58%
The model gave 58% on WW — the map was taken by WW.
Model check result
Model favoriteWW · 76%
Series resultWW 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2