WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#58 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
65%40%
Black Phoenix · 68 mapsedge Black Phoenix +25%EVO Elite · 1 map
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
53%33%
Black Phoenix · 32 mapsedge Black Phoenix +20%EVO Elite · 2 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
42%50%
Black Phoenix · 27 mapsedge EVO Elite +8%EVO Elite · 0 maps
NukeEVO Elite ban
52%50%
Black Phoenix · 27 mapsnearly even +2%EVO Elite · 0 maps
CacheEVO Elite ban
46%50%
Black Phoenix · 24 mapsnearly even -4%EVO Elite · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
65%50%
Black Phoenix · 22 mapsedge Black Phoenix +15%EVO Elite · 0 maps
DefaultEVO Elite pick
53%50%
Black Phoenix · 11 mapsnearly even +3%EVO Elite · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanEVO Elite remove Nuke
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickEVO Elite take Default
5. BanEVO Elite remove Cache
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (65% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
Black Phoenix 39%EVO Elite 61%
The model gave 61% on EVO Elite — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
Black Phoenix 76%EVO Elite 24%
The model gave 76% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 80%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2