ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BMZ#121 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The QUBE#163 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultBMZ ban
40%60%
BMZ · 1 mapedge The QUBE +20%The QUBE · 1 map
Dust2BMZ pick
60%40%
BMZ · 1 mapedge BMZ +20%The QUBE · 1 map
MirageThe QUBE pick
40%40%
BMZ · 1 mapnearly even +0%The QUBE · 1 map
AncientThe QUBE ban
60%50%
BMZ · 1 mapedge BMZ +10%The QUBE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBMZ remove Default
2. BanThe QUBE remove Ancient
3. PickBMZ take Dust2
4. PickThe QUBE take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
BMZ 47%The QUBE 53%
The model gave 53% on The QUBE — the map was taken by BMZ.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
BMZ 63%The QUBE 37%
The model gave 63% on BMZ — the map was taken by The QUBE.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
BMZ 69%The QUBE 31%
The model gave 69% on BMZ — the map was taken by The QUBE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBMZ · 57%
Series resultThe QUBE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3