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BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BORRACHEIROS#179 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UNO MILLE#221 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
67%59%
BORRACHEIROS · 2 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +8%UNO MILLE · 13 maps
AncientUNO MILLE ban
50%62%
BORRACHEIROS · 4 mapsedge UNO MILLE +12%UNO MILLE · 9 maps
AnubisUNO MILLE pick
50%67%
BORRACHEIROS · 2 mapsedge UNO MILLE +17%UNO MILLE · 8 maps
InfernoBORRACHEIROS ban
40%50%
BORRACHEIROS · 1 mapedge UNO MILLE +10%UNO MILLE · 8 maps
NukeUNO MILLE ban
40%58%
BORRACHEIROS · 1 mapedge UNO MILLE +18%UNO MILLE · 8 maps
OverpassBORRACHEIROS pick
50%50%
BORRACHEIROS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%UNO MILLE · 6 maps
CacheBORRACHEIROS ban
50%33%
BORRACHEIROS · 0 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +17%UNO MILLE · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Cache
2. BanUNO MILLE remove Ancient
3. PickBORRACHEIROS take Overpass
4. PickUNO MILLE take Anubis
5. BanUNO MILLE remove Nuke
6. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (67% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:2
BORRACHEIROS 41%UNO MILLE 59%
The model gave 59% on UNO MILLE — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
BORRACHEIROS 37%UNO MILLE 63%
The model gave 63% on UNO MILLE — the map was taken by UNO MILLE.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
BORRACHEIROS 58%UNO MILLE 42%
The model gave 58% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by BORRACHEIROS.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNO MILLE · 57%
Series resultBORRACHEIROS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3