ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
47%70%
Bounty Hunters · 11 mapsedge ALKA +23%ALKA · 26 maps
AncientBounty Hunters ban
29%42%
Bounty Hunters · 13 mapsedge ALKA +13%ALKA · 22 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%57%
Bounty Hunters · 22 mapsedge ALKA +7%ALKA · 10 maps
NukeALKA ban
55%53%
Bounty Hunters · 18 mapsnearly even +2%ALKA · 11 maps
CacheBounty Hunters pick
56%45%
Bounty Hunters · 21 mapedge Bounty Hunters +11%ALKA · 7 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%53%
Bounty Hunters · 0 mapsnearly even -3%ALKA · 11 maps
AnubisALKA ban
58%60%
Bounty Hunters · 8 mapsnearly even -2%ALKA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
2. BanALKA remove Anubis
3. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Nuke
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Bounty Hunters 25%ALKA 75%
The model gave 75% on ALKA — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Nukeprediction correct16:14
Bounty Hunters 54%ALKA 46%
The model gave 54% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 63%
Series resultBounty Hunters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2