ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LP#107 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%38%
Bounty Hunters · 20 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +12%LP · 9 maps
CacheBounty Hunters pick
58%67%
Bounty Hunters · 20 mapsedge LP +9%LP · 8 maps
NukeBounty Hunters ban
55%46%
Bounty Hunters · 18 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +9%LP · 9 maps
AncientLP pick
29%56%
Bounty Hunters · 13 mapsedge LP +27%LP · 12 maps
Dust2LP ban
50%30%
Bounty Hunters · 12 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +20%LP · 6 maps
AnubisLP ban
60%50%
Bounty Hunters · 6 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%LP · 0 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%50%
Bounty Hunters · 0 mapsnearly even +0%LP · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
2. BanLP remove Anubis
3. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
4. PickLP take Ancient
5. BanLP remove Dust2
6. BanBounty Hunters remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed2:13
Bounty Hunters 61%LP 39%
The model gave 61% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by LP.
Ancientprediction correct20:22
Bounty Hunters 22%LP 78%
The model gave 78% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 60%
Series resultLP 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2