CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Addicewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAddice ban
40%50%
BucketJonsBoys · 1 mapedge Addice +10%Addice · 0 maps
MirageBucketJonsBoys ban
40%50%
BucketJonsBoys · 1 mapedge Addice +10%Addice · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBucketJonsBoys remove Mirage
2. BanAddice remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
BucketJonsBoys 47%Addice 53%
The model gave 53% on Addice — the map was taken by Addice.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
BucketJonsBoys 53%Addice 47%
The model gave 53% on BucketJonsBoys — the map was taken by BucketJonsBoys.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
BucketJonsBoys 40%Addice 60%
The model gave 60% on Addice — the map was taken by Addice.
Model check result
Model favoriteAddice · 50%
Series resultAddice 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3